{"id":403,"date":"2022-12-14T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-14T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/?p=403"},"modified":"2023-01-17T14:17:05","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T06:17:05","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%8b%90%e7%82%b9%e5%b7%b2%e7%8e%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/?p=403","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u62d0\u70b9\u5df2\u73b0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u6211\u53f8\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6768\u656c\u660a\u63a5\u53d7\u300a\u8bc1\u5238\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u97e9\u6631\u8bb0\u8005\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u94fe\u63a5\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u6b64\u5904<\/a>\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u91c7\u8bbf\u95ee\u9898\uff1a10\u6708\u4efd\u300111\u6708\u4efd\u901a\u80c0\u589e\u901f\u5747\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u5224\u65ad\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u5df2\u57fa\u672c\u201d\u89c1\u9876\u201d\uff1f\u5728\u6b64\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\u8282\u594f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u3001\u7f8e\u80a1\u8868\u73b0\u5c06\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ece9\u300110\u300111\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u4ee5\u53ca\u76ee\u524d\u539f\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f9b\u9700\u8868\u73b0\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u5df2\u7ecf\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5373\u5c06\u53ec\u5f00\u76842022\u5e74\u5ea612\u6708\u4efd\u7684FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u8def\u5f84\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u964d\u81f350\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u5e03\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u540e\uff0c\u539f\u6cb912\u670813\u65e5\u591c\u76d8\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u8868\u73b0\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u4f46OPEC\u6628\u591c\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u4e0b\u4fee\u4e862023\u5e74\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ece\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4f34\u968f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u867d\u4f1a\u8fce\u6765\u60c5\u7eea\u6027\u56de\u6696\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7ec8\u4f1a\u538b\u5236\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u65b9\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u89c1\u9876\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f97\u5230\u786e\u8ba4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u9664\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b64\u8f6e\u8870\u9000\u7531\u4e8e\u53e0\u52a0\u4e86\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u5f3a\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6216\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f7b\u800c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u5de5\u8d44-\u87ba\u65cb\u6a21\u578b\uff08Wage Spiral Theory\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u4f1a\u62d6\u7d2f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u62ac\u5347\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8fd0\u8425\u6210\u672c\u3002\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u4f9b\u9700\u53cc\u5f31\u7684\u683c\u5c40\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ca1\u6709\u9677\u5165\u8d1f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u53ea\u8981\u8dcc\u7834\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u901f\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u9677\u5165\u5230\u4e86\u7c7b\u6ede\u80c0\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u5f53\u5c40\u9700\u8981\u6743\u8861\u7684\u5373\u662f\u662f\u5426\u4f9d\u7136\u8981\u5192\u7740\u6ede\u80c0\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\u800c\u575a\u63012%\u76ee\u6807\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6709\u76f8\u5f53\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u4e0a\u653e\u5f03\u8ffd\u6c422%\u76ee\u6807\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u51fa\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u4fe1\u7528\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u57282023\u5e741\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u300a\u957f\u671f\u76ee\u6807\u4e0e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7b56\u7565\u58f0\u660e\u300b\u76f4\u63a5\u5ba3\u5e03\u653e\u5f032%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u6b64\u901a\u80c0\u89c1\u9876\u4e0e\u52a0\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u653e\u7f13\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f1a\u5f00\u542f\u5f3a\u52bf\u884c\u60c5\uff0c\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\u8def\u5f84\u9884\u671f\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81f3\u5c11\u57282023\u5e74\u524d\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u6216\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u9700\u6c42\u6709\u660e\u663e\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4f9d\u7136\u4f1a\u4e4f\u5584\u53ef\u9648\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u5e02\uff0c\u5f3a\u52bf\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6b64\u8f6e\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u57282023\u5e742\u6708\uff0c\u4f46\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6216\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u7684\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u3001\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u5e02\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u6216\u5c06\u81f3\u5c11\u57282023\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u6216\u964d\u606f\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e8c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u6216\u8005\u4e8c\u8005\u540c\u65f6\u5230\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u4f9d\u7167\u6211\u53f8\u5408\u89c4\u548c\u5185\u63a7\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u5bf9\u672c\u6587\u53ca\u5176\u8f6c\u8f7d\u548c\u5f15\u7528\uff0c\u987b\u4f5c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u58f0\u660e\uff1a
1. \u672c\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5747\u6e90\u4e8e\u516c\u5f00\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u4ec5\u4f5c\u53c2\u8003\u4e4b\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u529b\u6c42\u51c6\u786e\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53ca\u5b8c\u5907\u6027\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4efb\u4f55\u4fdd\u8bc1\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5728\u4f55\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4e2a\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e2a\u522b\u5ba2\u6237\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u76ee\u7684\u3001\u8d22\u52a1\u72b6\u51b5\u6216\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f53\u4f5c\u8d2d\u4e70\u6216\u51fa\u552e\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6240\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u53ca\u5176\u8d44\u4ea7\u6807\u7684\u6216\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u4e14\u672c\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u627f\u62c5\u56e0\u6839\u636e\u672c\u6587\u64cd\u4f5c\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002
2. \u4f9d\u7167\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u76d1\u7763\u7ba1\u7406\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u300a\u8bc1\u5238\u671f\u8d27\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9002\u5f53\u6027\u7ba1\u7406\u529e\u6cd5\u300b\u53ca\u5176\u914d\u5957\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u656c\u8bf7\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f9d\u7167\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9002\u5f53\u6027\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5ba1\u614e\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u6ce8\u610f\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u98ce\u9669\u3002
3. \u5bf9\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5f15\u8ff0\u3001\u5f15\u7528\u548c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f9d\u7167\u300a\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u8457\u4f5c\u6743\u6cd5\u300b\u987b\u6ce8\u660e\u51fa\u5904\uff1b\u9664\u91c7\u8bbf\u5a92\u4f53\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u673a\u6784\u6216\u4e2a\u4eba\u5bf9\u672c\u6587\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u6587\u8f6c\u8f7d\u6216\u5f15\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u9664\u6ce8\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u53d6\u5f97\u6211\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e66\u9762\u6388\u6743\u3002
\u7279\u6b64\u58f0\u660e<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u6211\u53f8\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6768\u656c\u660a\u63a5…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":406,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[11,55,47,27],"class_list":["post-403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-condatview","tag-11","tag-55","tag-47","tag-27"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=403"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":404,"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/403\/revisions\/404"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.concatdata.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}